Panel Session on Democratic Reform

Presentation by Mr. Saad Eddin Ibrahim - Subministerial Meeting - Berlin, 22 – 23 October 2007

Reluctant Arab Political reform
The last decade has witnessed sustainable popular demands for political reform in much of the Arab World, with equally steady resistance from ruling Arab regimes. The outcome has been partial and reluctant democratization. There were enough of the latter to dispel the so-called Arab and Muslim exceptionalism; but not enough to irreversibly induct the Arab World into the celebrated Third Wave of Democracy. The course has been skimpy but hopeful, as we see below.
For the benefit of our host, let us only review the years since the Barcelona Accord (1995) and /or the G-8 Summit at Sea Island Democracy promotion in the Broader Middle East and North Africa (BMENA), out of which emerged the Forum for the Future. A quick glance at the first decade of the Barcelona experience tells the tale for one thing, the Europeans went it alone. They were justifiably more concerned about their southern Mediterranean neighbours, as fast breeders of religious militancy, illegal migration, smuggling and other sources of organized crime. All the above ills of failing states were to be addressed by the well-to-do northern European neighbours through a three-pronged strategy of development aid to consolidate security, enhance economic growth and promote civil society-based democratic governance.
The details were subsumed in three baskets, and were cheered by all concerned on both sides of the Mediterranean, or so it appeared at the time. But in the course of the following ten years, it became clear that ruling Arab regimes had ideas of their own about the three baskets. They would pursue the first two, i.e. security and economic aid, and deflect or duck the third. They had no intention of giving up, rotating, or sharing power. They argued with their European counterparts that socio-economic reform must come first lest Islamic or left hardliners take advantage of any premature political opening, à la Iran under the Shah in the late 1970’s or Algeria in the early 1990’s. Thus the promises of Barcelona came to pass.
Nearly ten years later, the US and Canada would join Europe in a renewed drive to democratize the Middle East. In the interim so many violent waters have rushed under many bridges on both sides of the Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Middle East itself: the ascendance of an Islamic radical Taliban in Afghanistan, following the expulsion of the Soviets, the horrific 9/11, and US-led wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq. The battle cry for the new was uttered by the American President, in his second term inaugural address (January, 2005):
“All who live under tyranny and hopelessness can know the US will not ignore your oppression. When you stand for your liberty, we will stand by you”.
Let us sketch what transpired in our region since that pledge in Washington nearly three years ago.
A Short Spring of Freedom
There were indeed some immediate democratic developments. The year 2005 would go down in history as one in which the Arabs had the largest number of elections. Two in Palestine, three in Iraq, three in Egypt, two in Lebanon and even Saudi Arabia a backwater of Arab politics had its first, albeit municipal, elections. The region seemed to be on electoral fire, with a mania of discovering or rediscovering the magic of the ballot box, and the joy of participation in their countries’ public affairs.
Even a tragic event, as that of the assassination of a Lebanese former Prime-Minister, Mr. Rafic Harriri, was turned into a popular uprising to get the Syrian occupation army out of Lebanon. In keeping with the times, it was called the “Cedar Uprising”; which succeeded with the help of the international community in liberating the country after nearly 30 years of Syrian military presence.
In Egypt, a middle class movement emerged to challenge the protracted autocratic rule of President Hosny Mubarak and a rumoured scheme to bequeath his son Gamal to inherit the Presidency. It was called “Kefaya”; literary meaning “enough” to the Mubarak family’s a quarter of a century’s rule. Among other factors, Kefaya broke the climate of fear, and several public figures dared Mubarak to agree to amend the Constitution to allow for a multiple candidacy contested race for the high office, which he reluctantly went along.
In Kuwait, women escalated their pressure on their conservative Parliament to approve an overdue bill granting them equal political rights. Surprisingly, the ruling Sabah Family threw its weight with women against the clerics and other opposing traditional forces in Kuwait. And before the end of 2005, Kuwaiti women had their voting right.
Autocrats Fight Back
This political commotion in a number of countries led some area observers to suggest that the World may be witnessing an “Arab Spring of Freedom”, akin to that of Georgia, and the Ukraine in recent years. However, that turned out to be premature. Arab autocrats would prove more tenacious than expected. And foreign powers interested in promoting democracy would prove that other geopolitical considerations ultimately take precedence over lofty ideals.
Thus, if 2005 was one of promise and advance for democrats, 2006 was one of autocracy reasserting itself in different guises and pretexts. Islamists ascendance at home and Islam- phobia abroad have been part of it.
Egypt. Despite drafting manipulations which rendered the amendment empty of substance in September 2005, Egypt had its first contested presidential elections, with nine candidates running against Mubarak’s bid for a fifth term, whereas in the previous four, it was simply a referendum with a single candidate, with the electorate simply voting “YES ”or “NO”. Nevertheless, as soon as the elections were over the principal opponent to Mubarak, Aymen Nour, was indicted on trumped up charges, tried and sentenced to five years in prison. The crackdown continued against other dissidents, or would be potential challengers to the Mubarak family, the latest of which were the two nephews of the late President Sadat. And just last month, five chief editors of independent newspapers, for being too critical of the President, and/or publishing news about his possible illness after being out of sight for two weeks.
With the continued debacle in Iraq, ascendance of Islamic Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a better than expected electoral performance by Egypt’s Muslim Brothers in the last Parliamentary elections, the U.S. significantly lowered its democracy promotion rhetoric. Mubarak and other autocrats interpreted this to be a license to settle scores with its foes and resume their consolidation of unchecked power.
Syria. After the initial setbacks in 2005, the Bashar Assad’s Baathist regime staged a counter offensive, using its favourite weapons – assassinating its opponents, fomenting troubles in neighbouring countries, and proxy wars. Iran and Hezbollah have proven to be reliable allies in this counter offensive, as they have concordant agendas of their own. Having released scores of old regime opponents, after several years in prison, when he felt his back against the wall, taking his cue from Mubarak, Assad ordered their reincarceration along with new younger dissidents.
Lebanon. Even the promising Cedar Revolution and the democratically elected government that followed ran into serious snags, thanks to Hezbollah protracted sit-ins in the major squares of Beirut, which have paralyzed the Lebanese capital. Furthermore some forty per cent of both the Parliament and the Cabinet, under the sway of Hezbollah, have resigned or boycotted the meetings of their respective institutions, and thus casting doubts on the legitimacy of any decision under taken.
It is abundantly clear, that Lebanon, which was the most promising Arab democracy in 2005, has been once again been used as a battleground for rival regional and international powers, with the U.S. and Iran as the lead players. Democracy in Lebanon is currently (2007) is on hold.
Are There Any Hopes?
1-Yes, Mauritania. In the depth of Arab Democrat’s despair about their cause in 2007, the poor desert country of Mauritania, surprised all by holding three successive elections –local municipal, Parliamentary and Presidential. They were all internationally monitored, and judged as free and fair. What was even most remarkable is that it the entire process was carried out by middle rank officers who had staged a coup against an older Military dictatorship in mid-2005, promised to restore democracy to their country within 18 months; and surprised the Arab World, by keeping their pledge.
What was even more impressive is that none of the officers ran for any office or stayed in uniform. They opted to transit to civilian life without much fanfare. Admiring what happened, a big demonstration in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, chanted, “Mauritania, Mauritania, We in Egypt are following you second by second”. No wonder either, that none of the other Arab heads of state showed up in the inauguration ceremony of the newly elected Mauritanian President.
2-Yes, Morocco. A gradual but steady democratization has been under way, since the early 1990’s. Started timidly under King Hassan II, and pursued more forcefully under young King Mohamed V, Morocco held its fourth successive Parliamentary elections in early September, with 33 political parties competing. The top five parties have alternated the lead in the last four elections. While not perfect, International observers have judged the last two elections as generally free and fair. Noteworthy, is that the Islamic-based Justice and Development Party (PJD) has participated in the last three and steadily improving its overall ranking from number seven in 1997 to number three in 2002 to number two in 2007. It has not seemed to be the end of the world!
3-Yes, there is hope: The Arab Democracy Foundation (ADF). In the ongoing struggle for public space, the autocrats have had a near monopoly over much of it for the last 60 years. They controlled security, military, finance and the media institutions. Only in the last 30 years have Islamists begun to challenge this total control, thanks to the Mosque. Through tens of thousands of mosques, they could reach out to supporters and potential followers at least once a week with the collective prayer every Friday and, if needed five times a day with individual prayers. The only societal force without ready access to public space has been the secular Arab democrats. Their ability to generate and deploy resources has diminished to near zero, because of authoritarian draconian laws. They could not collect donations or accept grants from local or foreign sources without a written state permit. This author was sentenced to seven years in prison for having received a grant from the European Union to register voters and monitor Egyptian elections. Other than the spectre of incarceration there is often character assassination for accepting funding. To ward off such moral and physical threats, some well-to-do civic minded Arabs recently established the Arab Democracy Foundation (ADF). Some 500 activists met in the Qatari capital, Doha, in the last week of May 2007, to inaugurate this hopeful non-governmental institution of their own. ADF is no substitute or competitor with the Forum for the Future. The two, along with others, should complement one another.
This takes me to a closing thought about the role of the Community of Democracy in helping us in the Middle East.
In Search of a New Spirit of Helsinki
This author firmly believe that democracy could neither be exported nor imported; but could and must be supported. Arab democrats are not facing their oppressors, the autocrats; or their rivals, the theocrats on a levelled playing field. While the Arab democrats have to carry the fight themselves, foreign powers have to stop supporting our dictators with military and economic aid. Some thirty two years ago when the Soviet Union and its satellites were in dire need for Western aid, trade and technology; it was granted. However, few fuzzy conditions about Human Rights, civil liberties and freedom of movements and expression were attached. The package came to be known as the 1975 Helsinki Accord. Within the following ten years, the face of Europe and the World has been transformed. It was a win-win process. It was a triumph for freedom without war, and a victory for the ballot without the bullet. Though history doesn’t exactly repeat itself, I am hopeful that at least the spirit of Helsinki could be incarnated.